analize privind economia Moldovei

analize privind economia Moldovei

Guest post: Moldova’s progress
- Lucien AnghelBy Lucian Anghel of BCR,
Financial Times
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Moldova’s GDP per capita doubled over the last six years to an estimated $2,200 this year. With economic growth at 6 per cent in 2011, it was among the top three most dynamic economies in Europe. Exports surged by 29 per cent and investment advanced by more than 13 per cent in real terms.

What lies behind this strong performance?

Almost imperceptibly, Moldova has developed a highly effective IT sector, which now accounts for 10 per cent of the economy. Today, more than 1,200 companies are operating in the IT&C sector, employing about 20,000 specialists, many of whom supply solutions for western European companies on an ongoing basis.

On top of their software kills, many young graduates in IT&C-related disciplines speak several languages, typically some permutation of Russian, English, French, Italian and German, along with their native Romanian.

With such skill sets, many IT companies are becoming certified partners for top IT multinationals, including Microsoft, Oracle and Cisco, offering solutions in financial services, testing and business process outsourcing. As a result of the economic mini-boom, some parts of Chisinau, the capital, and its population of almost 800,000, give the impression of being part of a go-go EU country.

Moldovan agriculture is another developing sector, expanding by almost 5 per cent in 2011. Wine in particular has been making progress, in terms of both exports and tourism. Wine and alcohol exports rose 2 per cent last year and the more than 200 kilometers of underground cellars to the south of Chisinau are a popular destination for a growing number of Western tourists. With a long tradition in wine production, Moldova is ranked among the top 20 wine exporters worldwide and the sector now accounts for 15 per cent of GDP.

Moldova’s desire to become part of the European community of nations is reflected in its economic ties. The EU now accounts for 49 per cent of exports, with the Commonwealth of Independent States taking 41 per cent. Most importantly, after two decades of inconsistent developments, Moldova’s political situation is steadily improving. The election of a pro-western president in 2012 after nearly three years without a head of state has been an enormous boost for the process of integration and adopting European political and economic norms. The government has launched a reform programme to improve the business climate and implement European standards; a free trade agreement with EU is under negotiation. If successful, this will further facilitate exports to the EU and – thanks to a preferential tax regime – open new opportunities for European companies to expand into the Commonwealth of Independent States.

Yet in spite of recent progress, Moldova’s Communist Party – an unreformed one at that – remains a significant political force and many Russian speakers in particular feel nostalgia for past times. Structural reform of the public sector is still at an incipient stage. A three-year programme under the IMF Extended Credit Facility, worth $572.7m, should help in this respect. Although declining, poverty is still significantly above EU standards. Considering that the average monthly salary is just $300, the authorities still have their work cut out to increase general living standards.

Still, there is now hope for progress on Moldova’s most critical challenge, in its Eastern borderlands: Transnistria has been controlled by a separatist regime since independence in 1990-1992. The uncertainties caused by the existence of the Transnistria entity – which is not recognized by the international community – has been the biggest impediment to foreign investment for the last two decades.

At the end of 2011 a more conciliatory head of the Transnistrian authority was elected. As a result, some progress has been made in the negotiation process managed by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe with the involvement of EU, US, Russian and Ukrainian representatives.

So if you would like to benefit from economic growth rates of around 6 per cent, at a reasonable risk and without being forced to go as far as Latin America, Asia or Africa, you could find an answer closer than you might think, just two or three hours flight from the most European capitals. Sometimes it’s worth looking east.

Lucian Anghel is chief economist and head of strategy at the market and macroeconomics research division of Banca Comerciala Romana